My trading Journal 20 Oct 2009

Here's my trading journal for the past two weeks
12 - 14 Oct, I focused on intraday trading.
15 - Because of the strong uptrend I did the switching and managed to recover the loss.



I expect the market will not make significant move today, but anything can happen as GJ won't be friendly to me many times already. I may have to reconfirm this with scheduled economic news later this afternoon. Can't be sitting on the comfort zone longer than 6 hours in forex if you focus on intraday trades, unless you will see the float balooning very fast

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Diagonal? Here it is

I'm not an English speaker,, so I have to keep this term in my trading journal as reference. Remember, I'm learning EW now ;^)...

Diagonal

A 45 degree angle offset from either 0 degrees or 90 degrees 

In a polygon, a diagonal is a line segment connecting two nonadjacent vertices. A diagonal is also a horseback riding term used in posting. Your diagonal is when you rise and fall while posting on either the outside or inside leg of the horse.

 

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GBPUSD ~ does this make sense?

I kinda interested with my new study on EW, so here I try to come up with my own reading on market chart once again.

The reading based on h1 chart, today.

One thing still puzzled me by the way, why on earth I keep on ending my reading on a complete wave??? Someone has to criticize me on this.

Back to the reading.

I believe the uptrend won't last longer than tommorow.

If the reading is correct, GU will going down after reaching yesterday high.

Gud luck in your trading

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What EW says on h4 chart GBPJPY?

An EW expert wrote this phrase, but couldn't remember where I read from

"Try put 12 EW gurus in a room and ask them to make a market review, then they will surely come up with 12 different predictions".

Well, I have nothing to complaint about EW, I'm learning it now.

This is yet another view on GJ based on h4 chart.

The market was on bearish preasure until yesterday. It's on C now, and I wonder why in every reading I ended up with C. Something must terribly wrong with my EW skill.

But nevermind, the market is now in choppy area as I believe (I should believe as I make the reading possible) the pair is making new wave 1. GJ will be down first, before going up again.

Up to you to decide.

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My first Attempt on Elliot Wave

This is my first attempt on Elliot Wave EW, GBPJPY on h1 chart (yesterday trade session). I never used EW in my trading before, and I don't think this method is a must-have in trading. A modest manual trading, in a real sense, can be made out of plain Candlestick and all those bundle mt4 tools (if you use mt4), believe me. Read on to see my commentary

So why the suddent interest?
My trading skills, I must say, is sharpening and it has nothing to do with EW, but by forcing myself to stare upon a plain candlestick most of the time.
But I choose to learn EW since last week.

Because I have time to learn at the moment.
Because I'm sick of some EW gurus keep on swearing by EW as their reasoning and when their prediction fails, they find excuses using EW too.

Some EW experts choose to display a very ambiguous daily prediction. Too ambiguous that even a plain candlestick movement is clearer than those messy waves and subwaves that they drew upon.

And because I love argument in my free time
And if I wanna argue with somebody, I need to understand their language. So I will keep on learning... ha ha..

Opps, I forgot about the chart.

Now I'm reading and making prediction based on the drawn chart. I believe GJ is now on correction wave C, but I couldn't see the diagonal triangle between 5 & C, or maybe I didn't do it right. So if my identification is correct on this 1h chart and another wave is in the making, gbpjpy will be on the rise again in the next few hours.

The target? I can't see any target using EW. But using other common tools, the next target is 157 area.

What if I'm wrong?
Well, I made wrong prediction everyday, ....big deal anyway.

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GJ - still going upward

The target is 157 area.

But the movement is weak (slow at the moment)... 

I wonder it can goes even to 154 tonite

Nevertheless, we still have a few hours to see whether GJ can continue upward or reverse the movement. Good luck. 

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Look like a retreat now, GBPJPY / GBPUSD

I think there is a slow retreat of the market from now on...

The bottom has been formed on daily chart and if everything goes well, we can see the uptrend from today onward.

Left - GJ's bottom LWP

But this slow process is scarry though, it goes flat maybe all day long, or just swinging around without direction as it likes.

So What the next target like? GJ - the 158 area.

Gud luck anyway

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I'm upgrading my blog...

Sorry for any inconvenience for the time being...
I decided to change this dull blog into a more jovial mood with those feed and multicolumns

I think it takes hours to complete.

Thank you for visiting my blog.

UPDATE:

The upgrade process is now completed. Thank you for your patience and understanding

3 September 2009 3.35pm

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GBPJPY / GBPJPY 01 Sep 2009

These are My Daily trading preference which is valid from 2300GMT - 1100GMT (0600 - 1800, GMT +8)

GBPJPY:

Overall Bearish Daily Configuration
Strong support at 149.97
Minor resistance at 152.80

My View:
Until the market breaks resistance, it will remain bearish all day long.
My preference for today:
I will open Sell position at 151.26, TP: 149.90, SL: 153.95.

Result: _______

GBPUSD:

Overall Bearish Daily Configuration
Medium support at 1.6150
Minor resistance at 1.6295

My View:

Sideway at the moment Until the market breaks resistance, it will remain bearish all day long.

My preference for today:
I will open Sell 1.6274, TP 1.6150 SL: 1.6385

Result: ________

I will post my trading result tomorrow, wish me pips :^)

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GJ / GU mild retracement

I think it is only a market retracement, not recovery. The market retraced upward (about 100pips) since the last 2 hours.

For my account with GU, this means it begins to shows some sanity.

Alright, let me tell you the story on how GBPUSD came about. I never wanted to trade this pair actually and how did I come up trading cable was purely accidental.

It was because the smooth talking EA seller in a forum i joined. And I was stupid enough to bought his martingale's.

The truth is, I was really looking for a reliable EA to maintain three of my small accounts. I bought 3 separate robots for that, and the said martingales is one of them.

I contacted him several times, and getting one instruction after another. He assured that this EA works for him for at least 3 months. (getting sleepy its 3.30am , will continue tommorrow... )

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Happy independence Day, Malaysia

Alright, today is National Day, a public holiday in Malaysia. It is 52nd commemoration of independence to be exact.

So again, Happy Independence day.
Also, to all muslims

Happy Fasting and 
Happy Eid-ul Fitr, later.

I wish that everybody's happy. But the truth is, I'm not very happy at the moment., the floats in my trading accounts is HUGE!

All of them, especially since last week

I sometime wanna break loose from hedging trading style. But it has been with me for quite some time, so it kinda automatic thing. Everytime the market gone against my position, I will lock the position by open up the opposite,  instead of closing it.

Huarrrghhhhhhhhh,,,

Some say hedging is stupid, newbie, whatever, cost us more and NFA prohibits it. Well I don't care. First it works for me. Second, eventually what all of us trader wanna see is the absolute figure in their account.

But really, nothing comes easy in forex as well as hedging. It is easy to create, but  took ages to settle them. And it isn't easy to release the interlocking positions.

Try open it in wrong timing, your account gone bye-bye.

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My Trading Pledge

In line with trading day tomorrow, I have to improve my trading discipline if I want trading to become a future career. That's my goal afterall. I want trading as main career and I always believe this can be done.

So I have to update my pledge as trader:

Trading is a job, not a game.
(A job is an act of Devotion to God, while game is an act of Recreation)

Because trading is a job, I have to:

1. Work, Not gamble.

2. To trade with Passion and having Fun doing it

3. Decision making with CONFIDENCE.

4. To understand the situation and ABLE to predict the movement of the market.

5. Will become more skillfull and will not be stagnant without progress.

6. Trading with profit.
That's my pledge.

I believe it is necessary as trading psychology.

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Ikrar saya sebagai trader

Sempena kedatangan hari trading pada esok hari, saya harus memperbaiki displin trading saya sendiri jika ingin menjadikan aktiviti trading sebagai karier saya di masa yang akan datang.

Lagipun memang itulah tujuan saya. Saya ingin menjadikan trading sebagai karier utama dan saya sentiasa optimis bahawa perkara ini boleh dilakukan.

Oleh itu, saya harus memperkemaskan kembali ikrar saya sebagai trader:

Trading adalah suatu perkerjaaan ~ bukan permainan.
(Pekerjaan adalah suatu Ibadah, permainan adalah suatu Riadah)
Oleh kerana trading merupakan pekerjaan, saya harus

1. Bekerja, BUKAN berjudi.
2. Melaksanakan trading dengan Minat dan Seronok melakukannya
3. Sentiasa YAKIN dalam membuat keputusan
4. Memahami keadaan dan BOLEH menjangka arah pasaran
5. Menjadi lebih cekap dan tidak berada di takuk yang sama
6. Mendapat Untung dari kerja trading.

Itu ikrar saya...
Saya rasa ianya perlu untuk psikologi trading.

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Market trend ~ What's your wish for, what you can see

This has to be, I mean the concept, has to be understood well among traders.

It can cloud our mind very strongly, the two.

What you SEE (green pips)
You can see clearly that the market is heading down on the chart, on the screen. But due to some floats in your account, you wish that market movement will clear them as soon as possible.

What you WISH (red pips)

You wish market going up and because the wish is strong, you simply ignore of what is seen on the chart.

You're intentionally ruining your trading account

Right, because you already have some float say, - US200 in your US1,000 mini trading account. Because of this, you really wish that market going up. Instead, market actually going down and the float increasing to -US250. Nope, you think. It will goes up later so you still devout to the belief that the market will goes up.

But the market dip further, and now the float is getting bigger than ever. Say, it eats up to -US500 or 50% of your equity and yet still reluctant to believe of what you see.

Your indecisiveness is killing your account. At the end, after your equity left a meagre sum of few hundreds dollar, you opt for the last resort ~ putting up a lock margin in a terrible state. Lucky that your aren't trading in US brokerage firms, but you aren't so lucky anyway.

This is GBPJPY pair, violatility is high. Your 2 lot BUY position stucked at 162.67 and 2 lot SELL position stucked at 148.84.

You're digging your own grave. Die man ...

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So, GBPJPY settle down at 157.00 for now

I presume that for today, gj already hit the lowest point at 156.83 just now. The support quite clear here by now, so I think it is a wise move to close my deal. its already 11.00 pm in Malaysia. Good nite, lets see where gj will bring us tomorrow. Unless it break this support, gj will rebounce...

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GBPJPY, gj, the beast; whatever

Yup, thats what this pair is being called. And I'm not an expert on forex, or didn't I?

Neither did I am a newbie actually.

I considered myself as having strong economics fundamental as well as decent business knowledge (thats what I think~ if you felt insulted in anyway, I'm sorry).

I know ehere market is heading toward in a long run. Long term prediction is easy. For example, US market is recovering say in a year or so. Japan economy is hopeful. At present they are shaping themselves in politic, LDP may not rule the country in near future as the japanese are getting bored with the party's economic policies.

The problem is we don't live in future, we live at present, breathing on the present air, eating the present food and trading with the existing money that we have.

Meaning, it is about a practical, day to day forex trading.

I think reading the present market swing is important, more important than a simple understanding the movement of the market in a long run.

That exactly that I'm going to tell you from now on.

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